Prime Minister Mark Carney begins a two-day stop Tuesday in the Netherlands, where NATO alliance members are prepared to decide whether to more than double the defense spending target.
The main talks in The Hague won’t happen until Wednesday, with Carney first set to take part in several bilateral meetings.
Carney will meet with the President of Latvia Edgars Rinkēvičs and the Prime Minister of the Netherlands Dick Schoof. He will also meet with leaders of Nordic countries for talks focused on Arctic and transatlantic security.
The prime minister will also meet with King Willem-Alexander and Queen Máxima of the Netherlands.
Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand is set to speak to reporters twice today, first in The Hague at around 7:15 am ET and then virtually at 8:30 am ET.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte have both said they expect alliance members to commit to a new target to spend the equivalent of five per cent of GDP on defence, up from the current two per cent target set in 2014.
None of NATO’s 32 members spent that much on defence in 2024, according to the alliance’s own data. All of them are pledging to meet the two per cent figure this year, including Canada for the first time since the target was created.
A Canadian government official who briefed reporters on background before the trip said the spending target and its timeline are still up for discussion. Some allies have indicated they would prefer a seven-year timeline, while others want a decade to reach the five per cent target.
Canada’s defence spending hasn’t reached five per cent of GDP since the 1950s. NATO estimates that Canada spent $41 billion in 2024 on defence, or 1.37 per cent of GDP. In 2014, Canada spent $20.1 billion, or 1.01 per cent of GDP, on defence.
In 2014, when the current two per cent target was first set, only three NATO members hit the mark — the U.S., the U.K. and Greece.
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Any new spending guidelines have to be made with the consensus of all 32 NATO member states, and no member is currently anywhere close. The U.S., at 3.38 per cent in 2024, was the highest, but President Donald Trump has said the figure shouldn’t apply to the United States — only to its allies.
The Rutte plan is expected to put forward at the summit contains some wiggle room to help allies reach that high figure.
It would commit members to spending 3.5 per cent of annual GDP on core defence needs — like jets and other weapons — and 1.5 per cent on defence-adjacent areas like infrastructure, cybersecurity and industry.
Internal divisions have emerged in the lead-up to the summit.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said Sunday that Spain reached a deal with NATO to be excluded from the new spending target. Like Canada, Spain has long struggled to meet the two per cent target and has rejected the new proposal.
Rutte warned Monday that no country can opt out of the target and that progress made toward the new target will be reviewed in four years.
NATO’s defence buildup is also controversial in Italy, where defence minister Guido Crosetto recently said the alliance “no longer has a reason to exist.”
Countries much closer to Russia, Belarus and Ukraine all have agreed to reach the target, as have nearby Germany, Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands, which is hosting the two-day summit starting Tuesday.
Canadian Defence Minister David McGuinty said “stay tuned” when asked earlier this month if Canada would agree to the five per cent plan.
Jan Techau, a senior fellow with the transatlantic defence and security program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said the overall level of ambition in Europe on defence has “massively” increased over the last several years in response to Russian aggression.
“The closer to Russia you are, the more ambitious you are,” he said.
Speaking to reporters at a military cemetery in Antwerp Monday, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever said that while he isn’t comfortable with the five per cent target, it’s important that the country remain in NATO. He also said the proposed 3.5 and 1.5 per cent breakdown “helps a bit.”
Lauren Speranza, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said the NATO summit is coming at a “very precarious moment,” marked by uncertainty about the U.S. commitment to Europe, the grinding conflict between Russia and Ukraine and ongoing tensions over transatlantic trade.
Speranza said the meeting will offer some insights into how the Trump administration will approach the alliance going forward, following its criticisms of NATO and calls for Europe to take more responsibility for its own defence.
On Monday, Rutte said recent U.S. strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities were not a violation of international law.
Prime Minister Carney, who has called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis, said Monday that Iran has pursued nuclear weapons while expressing a desire to eliminate the state of Israel.
In a statement Sunday, Carney said Iran’s nuclear program is a “serious threat” to international security and that Canada has been “consistently clear” that Iran “can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon.”
Tuesday’s schedule also includes a reception and a social dinner hosted by the king and queen of the Netherlands.
— With files from Kyle Duggan in Ottawa and The Associated Press
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